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Bouët A. and Laborde-Debucquet D. "The Potential Cost of a Failed Doha Round". World Trade Review, volume 9, issue 02, pp. 319-351.

Available (working paper version) at http://catt.univ-pau.fr/live/digitalAssets/92/92497_articleNonDohav2.pdf
Abstract: This study offers new conclusions on the economic cost of a failed Doha Development Agenda (DDA). We assess potential outcome of the Doha Round as well as four protectionist scenarios using the MIRAGE Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In a scenario where applied tariffs of World Trade Organization (WTO) economies would go up to currently bound tariff rates, world trade would decrease by 7.7 % and world welfare by US$353 billion. The economic cost of a failed DDA is here evaluated by the difference between a cooperative scenario (DDA) and a protectionist one (US$412 billion in terms of welfare). Another point of view is to compare a resort to protectionism when the DDA is implemented with a resort to protectionism when the DDA is not implemented. The findings show that this trade agreement could prevent the potential reduction of US$809 billion of trade and, therefore, acts as an efficient multilateral „preventive‟ scheme against the adverse consequences of trade “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies
by Jean Christophe BUREAU last modified 16-04-2010 19:36
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