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Deliverable D01.01 Database, indicators and definition of prospective scenarios

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ABSTRACT: The main objective of WP01 of the AGFOODTRADE project is to provide a complete assessment of the current intensity of trade and trade distortions in agriculture in the EU and in its main trading partners. It includes multilateral trade liberalization as well as predictable regional agreements and preferential schemes. This report is structured as follows: first main databases and their updates are presented, followed by the description of main macro economic drivers influencing the agri-food sector to depict the baseline. Finally, the scenarios to be simulated are described in the last section. AgFoodTrade would make use of several models to reach its objective. The main models are: global Computable General Equilibrium as MIRAGE and GTAP (based on the GTAP database), a spatial model and a developed dynamic stochastic version of GOAL (single-country CGE model). To feed these models AgFoodTrade Project developed large scale databases that make it possible to assess the effects of trade liberalization as well as domestic agricultural policies. These databases include highly detailed information on tariffs, tariff rate quotas, including preferential and applied tariffs under the various regimes, as well as the matching trade flows. Significant developments in the information needed to model agricultural policies, including social accounting matrices, are also expected. Four main databases have been developed. The first one is aimed to incorporate into GTAP the Producer Support Estimates provided by OECD. BACI is a detailed world trade database covering more than 200 countries and 5,000 products, between 1995 and 2004. It covers values, quantities and unit-values of bilateral international trade at the product-level. MAcMap-HS6v2 covers 171 importer and 209 exporter countries and 5,113 products, following the HS-6 digit nomenclature. The data set contains consolidated tariffs, ad valorem applied tariffs, ad valorem equivalent of specific tariffs, tariff rate quotas (TRQ), prohibitions and antidumping duties, as well as preferential rates for the year 2004. Finally, the AgroSAMs database creates a set of Social Accounting Matrices with a disaggregated agricultural sector for the 27 EU Member States by combining national Supply- and Use Tables with data from the agricultural sector model CAPRI. This report further defines the baseline as well as the assumptions considered for agricultural and trade policy, the macro-economy drivers and world market prices set for the baseline. In this project, the baseline is defined as the set of current policies that form a conceivable framework for the international and domestic agri-food sectors in the future. The baseline provides a benchmark for comparison to scenario analysis about the specific effects introduced by each scenario proposed. The baseline is not considered as a scenario given that it exclusively considers projections of macro-economic indicators, policies that remain unchanged, and already agreed policies. The baseline focuses on policy reforms; changes in agricultural trade policies (in forced or already signed), foreseen changes in European domestic policies (CAP reforms since 2003), non- European domestic policies (the US Farm Bill, China agricultural policy), various bilateral trade agreements that have been signed and either have not been implemented or are to be implemented over a long time period, as well as the expected world economic developments (GDP, population growth, exchange rates, total factor productivity, etc.). Finally, the scenarios to be simulated by different economic models are described. The time horizon considered in the scenarios of this project assumes the full implementation of all free trade agreements already signed (baseline). From this departing point two scenarios are drawn. The first scenario simulates that all nations over the world eliminate all import tariffs; this scenario is called Multilateral trade liberalization. The second scenario assumes the possibility of a strong focus on regional trade agreements and no further WTO agreement: this is called Regional policies.
by Emmanuel Muhr last modified 27-07-2010 17:18
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